John Hart discusses strategies for buying and selling on July 31.
John Hart served as the Cleveland Indians’ general manager from 1991 to 2001, building teams that took the American League Central pennant six times. After leaving the Indians, he took over the vacant GM position with the Texas Rangers and worked in that job through the 2005 season.
Now a studio analyst with MLB Network, Hart, who will highlight the network’s coverage of Wednesday’s trade deadline, spoke to USA TODAY Sports about a general manager’s job in the final days of July.
FTW: How and when does a team determine its approach for the trade deadline?
Hart: As a general manager, whether you’re a buyer or a seller, it really starts right when the season begins. You have an idea about your club, and you start preparing. If in fact you think you’re going to be a buyer, you’re certainly going to be scouting a lot of players on clubs that you think are going to sell. If you’re the seller, you’re kind of doing the same thing. You’re going to be looking at 8-12 clubs’ minor league systems, and bearing down on their prospects.
The other piece is the financial piece. You have to spend time with your ownership, and you have to determine — especially in today’s world — one, if you’re a buyer, am I going to take the money on? There are some clubs that just aren’t going to be able to take on the money, so they’re going to have to give up better players.
I think when you get to the All-Star Break, you want to have your ducks in a row. If you’re the buyer, you want to know the players that you want. If you’re the seller, you want to know the minor league players that you want. You’ve met with your scouts, you’ve got all your reports, and from there — the last piece — is determining who the buyers and sellers are out of the tweener group, the teams that are five to seven games out.
FTW: For a team that’s out of contention, what’s the value in keeping a veteran player approaching free agency?
Hart: The GMs know what type of players are being offered. They say to the public, “We’re not going to talk about this player; we like what we’re doing; we’d prefer to hold this guy.” They use the right words. But at some point, they know that they’ve had six calls, and they’ve talked about a few players that would interest them, and they know whether clubs are going to play or they’re not. So at some point, you draw that line in the sand and go, “If we don’t get something of value, I don’t want to trade this guy just to trade him. He’ll have more value to me than it would be for me to get some fringe prospect in A-ball.”
The real important piece is: What does this guy mean to our club and how we finish? For instance, if you’re talking about (Mets outfielder) Marlon Byrd, you say, “OK, we’ve got Jenrry Mejia up here, we’ve got Zack Wheeler up here, we’ve got Matt Harvey up here, and some other youngsters Marlon Byrd, is he a good citizen? Check. Is he playing well? Check. Is he going to help our club achieve a better year than we did last year and provide something positive for our young players?” If the answer is yes, you’re going to need a pretty good player in return.
How do you weigh your internal assessment of another team’s prospect against the prospect’s national reputation?
Hart: The internal assessment is everything. Everybody knows who the top guys are. The key is, if you have a player that can command top guys, you go for the top guys. If you don’t, there’s a lot of good players in other clubs’ systems that aren’t necessarily touted as the top guys. You out-scout people.
The fun part of the job is what you’re doing now. It’s a painful time, but this is pure baseball, according to your organization. Guys are out there beating the bushes, and as a GM, you’re on the phone with them. They were down somewhere in A-ball or Double-A, and they’ll call you after the game and say, “Look, if we talk to so and so, we’ve got to get this guy in the deal. I just saw this kid tonight, I hadn’t seen him before — check our reports.” This is where you end up helping and improving your organization.
Frequently, you might have a staff of 7-8 guys, and each guy has three or four organizations where they go top to bottom — rookie ball all the way up to the big leagues. And their job is to know that organization, and to know where the depth is in that organization. If you’re talking with a club and you’ve got a scout that’s been there, top to bottom, he may say, “They’ve got a young shortstop here that we really like. he’s in A-ball and I think you can get him because they’ve got another shortstop in Triple-A and they’ve got a young kid at the big leagues.”
FTW: What are GMs doing in the final days before the deadline?
Hart: At this point, you’re down to players — what’s it take to make a deal? Let’s say that you’re looking for an outfielder, and you’ve got a list of five guys out there that you know are available, and you’ve got another two or three out there that you’re not sure of but you’d really want. You’re going to pay close attention to those five guys that you know are available. You’re going to rank them. And then you’re going to learn what it takes to make a deal for your No. 1 guy, to your No. 2 guy all the way down the line.
If I’m looking for my No. 1-ranked player and it’s going to cost me my best young player, but for No. 2 or 3 — which is not that big of a dropoff — I don’t have to give up as much, then I’m going to go that way.
You’re playing the deal: Who do we want and who do we have to give up? And you’ve got this other group over here of clubs you’re not sure of, and you want to make sure before you make the jump. You might pick up the phone to one of their GMs and say, “Look: I’m getting close to making a deal here. Once I make it, I’m out. If you’re telling me now that you’re not playing, I’m telling you, I’m going away.” That’s how you flush out that club that’s on the fence.
FTW: What about deals that we read about before they happen? Do teams ever leak information strategically?
Hart: There are some organizations that are airtight, where it’s almost a fireable offense if you go out there and start running your mouth. But even then it’s not difficult to sort of match what’s going on. For instance, if one club has just been grinding another club — their scouts have been sitting there, they’ve been watching and focusing on it. People will put two and two together; writers do a really great job now. A lot of it is not clubs that are giving up information, it’s that the writers have seen people around. They’ve got a great feel for what’s going on.
But yes, absolutely. I’m not saying there’s subterfuge going on, but you don’t want to play your hand. You want to play your cards close to your vest. Do you bluff? Do you try to lead somebody that you’re on to somebody else, when you’re on to another player? Absolutely.
FTW: What does a GM do in the final hours before the deadline?
Hart: I think if you really want to play poker to the 12th hour, as a seller, and you’ve got a really good piece, you may have a chance to maximize what you have. You’ll really find out, and be able to compare apples to apples. You have a chance to get a better player later, but you have a better chance to get shut out. It can be chaotic.
If you’re sitting there with the player in the market, and you’re holding out for one additional player from two or three clubs, you’re in a pretty good position because you know you’re going to make a deal.
Also, if you’re a club that wanted to do something and for some reason you’ve been shut out — one of the worst phone calls you get, if you’re counting on a guy, is to all of a sudden get a call that says, “Hey, I’m sorry, we just moved this guy.” Or you read a report, and that was the guy you wanted. Now you’re really scrambling. Everybody has a plan B and Plan C.
You get down to the wire, you want to try to help your club. You want to do something. Something comes up, you don’t have enough time to do as much homework as you want, you look at your reports and talk to the scout and maybe make a deal that at the end of it, you say, “I’m not sure that was a wise movie.” Those are the ones to be cautious of — when you haven’t done your due diligence.
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