Trying to predict MLB trades in July is probably a fool’s errand. Sometimes long-rumored deals come to fruition, sometimes they seem just about done then fall through at the last minute, and sometimes huge moves come without any preceding reports or speculation.
But discussing and dissecting possible trade-deadline deals is one of the great joys of baseball’s July, as fans and media work to decipher which teams will part with young players for immediate help, which will retool for the future and which will stand pat. There will be surprises and disappointments, undoubtedly, and big rumored deals that never happen and small ones that get over-analyzed. For now, let’s take a look at some rumors and needs and look for logical fits.
It’s unlikely any of these trades will happen, but all of them seem to make some sense for the clubs involved.
Cubs starter Matt Garza to the Pirates for outfield prospect Gregory Polanco:
All signs point to Garza getting dealt at the trade deadline: The Cubs aren’t contending and he’s a solid mid-rotation starter with postseason experience. Chicago is said to be looking for a haul similar to the one the Brewers got for Zack Greinke last year, which was headlined by 2013 All-Star Jean Segura and two starting pitching prospects.
It’s impossible to know how teams value their competitors’ prospects, and Polanco is probably a bit better regarded nationally than Segura was at this point last season. But the Pirates have young outfielders performing at the Major League level and the Cubs don’t have a ton in the way of outfield prospects above A-ball.
Polanco, who’s playing well in Double-A, may seem too steep a price for the Pirates to pay for a pitcher of Garza’s caliber. But the Pirates appear to have their best shot at the playoffs in years, and much of their first-half success was based on starting pitching performances that seem unsustainable. Wandy Rodriguez should return to their rotation soon, but adding Garza would fortify the staff and give them more flexibility to limit rookie Gerrit Cole’s innings later in the season.
The Pirates are believed to be looking for help in right field and rumors have swirled around Cubs’ right-fielder Nate Schierholtz, so maybe there’s room for an inter-division trade to expand.
Dodgers outfielder Andre Ethier and cash to the Mets for Daniel Murphy:
This one hinges on a few variables: It assumes that center fielder Matt Kemp will return from the disabled list sometime soon and Carl Crawford won’t hurt himself before that happens, leaving the Dodgers with too many high-priced outfielders for too few spots. And for it to go down, the Mets would have to be confident in gangly converted shortstop Wilmer Flores’ ability to handle the keystone — where he’s played most of the season in Triple-A — and convince the big-spending Dodgers to eat a whole lot of Ethier’s salary.
Both players are enduring down years, but both would stand to upgrade their new teams. Murphy can hit a bit and capably handle three of the four infield positions, including the ones where the Dodgers use struggling Mark Ellis and overperforming Juan Uribe. And he’s a good enough player to save them some face for dealing Ethier, whom they just signed to a big and silly contract extension.
The Mets have no proven Major League outfielders signed past this season, so Ethier — warts and all — would upgrade the club and provide some of the left-handed power they’re still waiting on from Ike Davis. And moving Murphy gives them room to get Flores’ promising bat into their lineup.
White Sox first baseman Adam Dunn to the Orioles for salary relief:
Citing “one exec,” Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports that Dunn might be hard to move in the second-to-last year of a four-year, $56 million contract. But the Big Donkey has been hot of late — he’s got a .984 OPS since the start of June — and would provide the Orioles a power bat to improve their woeful DH situation.
Baltimore designated hitters have hit a league-worst .197 with a puny .643 OPS. Though Dunn has said he prefers playing the field, his bat would bolster the Orioles’ offense and give the generally very aggressive-hitting team at least one very patient hitter.
The Orioles need pitching more than they need offense, but there are a lot of ways to try to outscore opponents. If they could afford to bring on part or all of Dunn’s contract, he’d represent an easy upgrade that costs them nothing more than money. One potential hangup: The Orioles have hot-hitting Cuban outfielder Henry Urrutia waiting in the wings in Triple-A.
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